roducts
P
agle Metal
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Janes Co.
Gross &
Hurdle Machine
Works
K
oppers Inc.
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Trend lines in the four graphs below are 4 quarter moving averages.
US Class 1 Freight (billions of ton-miles)
Real GDP growth for the third quarter was revised to 5.0 percent, and the
fourth quarter GDP growth was 2.6 percent.
Crosstie purchases were down 10.6 percent in the 4th quarter.
In the fourth quarter of 2014 shortline freight was down by 0.6 percent from
year ago.
RailConnect Freight Car Data - Carloads
ties - BUSINESS TRENDS
500
450
400
3 50
300
Real GDP (billions of chained 2005 dollars)
Quarterly Tie Purchases
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1
,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
5
00,000
250
0
0
2008
2007
2009
Q3
Q3
Q3
Q3
Q3
Q3
Q3
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Q3
2007
2008
2009
20010
Q3
Q2
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q2
Q3
Q3
Q3
Q4
2011
Q4
Q4
2013
Q2
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q3
Q4
2012
2014
16,500
1
6,000
1
5,500
15,000
14,500
14,000
13,500
1
3,000
12,500
According to RTA estimates (based on total carloads, coal carloads and seasonal factors), US
Class 1 freight, measured in ton-miles, increased in the 4th quarter, and was down 2.2 percent
from year ago. Sources for ton-miles: AAR 2005 to 2012; RTA estimates since 2013.
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q2
2007
2008
2009
20010
Q3
Q2
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q2
Q3
Q3
Q3
Q4
2011
Q4
Q4
2013
Q2
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q3
Q4
2012
2014
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q2
CROSSTIES • JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2015
22
US Housing Starts (saar)
YTD Housing starts are 8.0 percent higher than last year; permits are up 3.4 percent.
US Housing Permits (saar)
■ 2011 ■ 2012 ■ 2013 ■ 2014
■ 2011 ■ 2012 ■ 2013 ■ 2014
Diesel prices have declined by 23% from year ago levels.
LIBOR 30 Day
LIBOR (interest rate) reflects a long-running global "easy money" policy.
J
F M A M J J A S
O
N
D
800
1,000
1,200
600
400
0
J
F
M A
M
J
J A
S
O
N
D
PERCENT
200
800
1,000
1,200
600
400
0
200
500
400
300
200
100
0
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
US Diesel Prices - cents per gallon
1/1/07
5/1/07
9/1/07
5/1/09
1/1/08
5/1/08
9/1/08
1/1/09
9/1/09
1/1/10
5/1/10
9/1/10
9/1/11
1/1/11
5/1/11
1/1/12
5/1/12
9/1/12
1/1/13
5/1/13
9/1/13
1/1/14
5/1/14
9/1/14
1/1/15
1/1/07
5/1/07
9/1/07
5/1/09
1/1/08
5/1/08
9/1/08
1/1/09
9/1/09
1/1/10
5/1/10
9/1/10
9/1/11
1/1/11
5/1/11
1/1/12
5/1/12
9/1/12
1/1/13
5/1/13
9/1/13
1/1/14
5/1/14
9/1/14
2007
2008
2009
20010
Q3
Q2
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q2
Q3
Q3
Q3
Q4
2011
Q4
Q4
2013
Q2
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q3
Q4
2012
2014
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q2
MiTe
Industr Industr
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